Crește turbulența economică și mai mult ratele dobânzilor ipotecare?

Cel/Cea/Cei/Cele Rezerva Federală held interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive time this year at its monetary policy meeting this weekTotuși, creșterea cererilor de șomaj, intensified geopolitical conflict and slowing economic growth could force the central bank to cut rates as early as the fall. 

As turbulent trade policies pressure financial markets, investors have been wondering how President Donald Trump would influence the Fed’s interest rate forecast. Trump has repeatedly scolded the Fed for not lowering borrowing costs already. The central bank is cautiously projecting two rate cuts în 2025. 

Fed are sarcina de a menține un nivel maxim al ocupării forței de muncă și de a limita inflația, în principal prin stabilirea ratei dobânzii de referință pe termen scurt pentru creditori. O economie lentă justifică de obicei reduceri ale ratelor dobânzii pentru a stimula creșterea, însă scăderea prea rapidă a ratelor ar putea alimenta creșterea prețurilor atunci când inflația este încă peste țintă. 

At the same time, the Fed only indirectly impacts the mortgage market. In 2024, the central bank cut interest rates three times, but mortgage ratele nu au scăzut. 

According to Bankrate data, the dobândă medie pentru o ipotecă fixă pe 30 de ani has moved in a narrow range between 6.7% and 7% since mid-April. Though housing affordability was expected to gradually improve in 2025, uncertainty over the direction of the economy has altered those forecasts. Most economists say mortgage Ratele vor rămâne peste 6,5% for the better part of the year. 

„Ar trebui să vedem rate ipotecare destul de mult sub nivelurile actuale, cu siguranță sub 6,75%, pentru a stimula cumpărătorii de locuințe”, a spus Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. “Everybody’s in a wait-and-see mode, not just the Fed,” Bovino added. 

Mortgage rates aside, prospective homebuyers are also contending with a lipsă de locuințe de lungă durată, high home prices and a loss of purchasing power due to inflation. 

„Prețurile sunt încă incredibil de mari”, a spus Bovino. „Adăugați la acestea costurile de împrumut aferente unei ipoteci și este prohibitiv pentru majoritatea oamenilor să intre pe piața imobiliară.” 

Experts say many of the Trump administration’s policies, such as tariffs, could cripple housing affordability even further, putting upward pressure on interest rates and the cost of building materials, like lumber, used to build new homes. 

What’s the path for mortgage rates now?  

Mortgage lenders base their rates on a range of factors. While the Fed’s monetary policy changes regarding interest rates can influence overall borrowing rates, mortgage rates are primarily driven by movement in the bond market, specifically the 10-year Treasury yield. Bond yields and interest rates rise or fall depending on how new economic data shifts market speculation and risk assessment. 

If tariff policies recharge inflation, more affordable mortgages and housing will be difficult to achieve. 

“Even though many of the tariffs are in place, some of the big ones have yet to take effect,” said Bovino. When people are nervous about finances, they’ll be more reluctant to take on new debt. The average household in the US is expected to lose about $3,000 in income from tariffs, with lower-income households getting hit even harder, according to Bovino. 

Despite Trump’s earlier claims that he would bring mortgage rates down to 3%, the White House doesn’t set rates on home loans. Moreover, those kinds of rock-bottom pandemic-era rates would normally indicate that the country is in a severe economic crisis. 

Still, mortgage rates have the potential to dip this year. Given the economy’s precarious nature, any sign of risk could lower bond yields and put downward pressure on mortgage rates. 

For example, Bovino said that markets will be weighing the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict, which could increase oil prices and spark concerns of an economic downturn. If unemployment spikes or a recession appears likely, mortgage rates could start decreasing. 

How to deal with high mortgage rates

Prospective homebuyers who have been waiting for mortgage rates to drop for the past few years may soon have to adjust to the “higher for longer” rate environment, with mortgage loan rates fluctuating between 5% and 7% over the longer term. Since the 1970s, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has been around 7%. 

While market forces are out of your control, there are ways to make buying a home slightly more affordable. Last year, nearly half of all homebuyers secured a mortgage rate below 5%, according to Zillow.

Here are some proven strategies that can help you save up to 1.5% on your mortgage rate. 

💰 Construiește-ți scorul de credit. Scorul dumneavoastră de credit va ajuta la determinarea dacă sunteți eligibil pentru o ipotecă și la ce rată a dobânzii. scor de credit de 740 sau mai mult vă va ajuta să vă calificați pentru o rată mai mică.

💰 Economisește pentru un avans mai mare. O mai mare acont vă permite să contractați o ipotecă mai mică și să obțineți o rată a dobânzii mai mică de la creditorul dumneavoastră. Dacă vă permiteți, un avans de cel puțin 20% va elimina și asigurarea ipotecară privată.

💰 Căutați credite ipotecare. Compararea ofertelor de credit de la mai mulți creditori ipotecari vă poate ajuta negociați o rată mai bunăExperții recomandă obținerea a cel puțin două sau trei estimări de împrumut de la creditori diferiți.

💰 Luați în considerare punctele ipotecare. Poți obține o rată ipotecară mai mică cumpărând puncte ipotecare, fiecare punct costând 1% din suma totală a creditului. Un punct ipotecar este egal cu o scădere de 0,25% a ratei dobânzii ipotecare.