The 2025 COLA increase of 2.5% for Social Security recipients was one of the lowest since 2021, and so far, signs are pointing to an even lower increase for next year. We’re still about five months out before we get an official announcement from the Social Security Administration, so there’s plenty of room for that to change — in either direction.

Experts in the field have been making predictions for the 2026 COLA since the beginning of this year, and an initial prediction of a 2.1% bump next year has been followed by a slight shift upward month by month. Whether these expert takes will match the official number remains to be seen — especially with the economic uncertainty spurred by the Trump administration’s tariffs agenda — but we’ll break down the latest for you below.

I’ve been steeping myself in all things Social Security for the past year, writing timely articles that surface the most relevant details for existing and soon-to-be beneficiaries and their families. Even if, like me, you’re a long way from retirement, staying up to date with expert takes will keep you informed for when it’s time for you or your loved ones to retire. The COLA adjustment will be one of the most important announcements of the year.

For more, don’t miss the Social Security and SSDI cheat sheet. 

What is the COLA?

The cost-of-living adjustment, otherwise known as the COLA or COLA increase, is an annual change in the payment scale made by the Social Security Administration. It’s pegged to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, which measures the average changes in prices for consumer goods and services and is updated monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These monthly snapshots in the changes to prices of goods and services allow the SSA to see the overall average and determine the COLA for the following year as a percentage of the current payment levels. 

For Social Security and Supplemental Security Insurance recipients, the COLA percentage represents how much more you’ll receive in monthly benefits in the new year. It takes effect Jan. 1 and stays in effect for the calendar year.

The official COLA announcement typically takes place sometime in October. 

Some are not happy with how the COLA is calculated

How the COLA is calculated has become a hot topic, given that the model sets the adjustment for the entire year ahead. 

The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group for older adults, last year conducted a study of 3,000 older adults. A key takeaway: 72% of respondents said that Congress should prioritize changing the COLA calculation to an index that’s more reflective of the changing expenses for seniors, like the CPI-E. 

Government benefits that are affected by the COLA

There are multiple government benefits that use the COLA to make adjustments. In addition to Social Security, the adjustment applies to Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income, Medicare, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to account for inflation when setting benefits.

Expert predictions for the 2026 COLA increase

The League provides monthly predictions of what the upcoming COLA will be for the following year, and they were spot on for 2025’s, predicting a 2.5% COLA. 

In January, the League predicted a 2.1% increase for 2026 and has adjusted that upward since then. Its latest prediction, as of April 2025, sits at 2.4%. The prediction comes after the recent executive order by the Trump administration, targeting pharmaceutical companies and pushing for cheaper drug costs. 

Despite the upward trend over the past few months, the League predicts the 2026 COLA to be the lowest since the 1.3% COLA in 2021. This, of course, is all subject to change, not least because of the economic uncertainty highlighted by the Trump administration’s tariffs. 

COLA Increases 2020 – 2025

For more, don’t miss the Social Security and SSDI cheat sheet.