Predicții privind ratele ipotecare: Iată de ce ratele rămân ridicate în iulie

After the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dipped to around 6.7% (its lowest level in months), prospective homebuyers jumped to take advantage. Before the July 4 holiday weekend, mortgage loan applications increased 9.4% week over week, per the Asociația Bancherilor Ipotecari. Homeowners also seized on refinancing, with refinance activity 56% higher than the same time last year.

But the reprieve didn’t last long. On Monday, rate fixe medii pe 30 de ani were back around 6.76%, according to Bankrate data.

The culprit was last month’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, released July 3, which sent bond yields up. Since the 30-year mortgage rate closely tracks the 10-year Treasury yield, rising bond yields translate to higher rates for home loans. Last month’s surprisingly low unemployment rate also reduced the probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this summer. 

“The headline labor market data isn’t crashing and burning, which likely gives the Fed some cover to hold rates where they are,” said Alex Thomas, senior analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting. While the Fed doesn’t have direct control over the mortgage market, its monetary policy guides mortgage lenders and the general direction of interest rates.

Experts say average 30-year fixed mortgage rates are likely to stay above 6.5% in the coming months, with a potential for small and temporary dips, not substantial drops. Prospective homebuyers are also contending with a lipsă de locuințe de lungă durată, high home prices and a loss of purchasing power. 

What’s driving mortgage interest rates this week?

Mortgage rates, which are sensitive to investor speculation and economic data, have been affected by the Trump administration’s tax cuts and tariff policies. If tariffs end up raising prices as expected, that would send an even clearer “wait and see” signal to central bank policymakers, whose primary task is keeping both inflation and unemployment in check. 

“Increased uncertainty about the inflation picture lessens the chances of a cut in rates by the Fed,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com. “Greater inflation would argue against cutting rates, absent any significant deterioration in labor conditions.” 

Following signs of cooler inflation in 2024, the Fed cut interest rates three times but has held rates steady throughout 2025. A slowing job market with higher unemployment could still prompt the central bank to reduce borrowing costs this year, eventually helping mortgage rates fall. 

But the most recent jobs report appeared too steady on the surface, according to Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. “For the Fed, this reduces the urgency to cut rates in July. Even a September move may require more definitive evidence that the economy is cooling,” Kushi said. 

Fewer interest rate cuts combined with the recently passed budget bill, which is expected to significantly boost government debt deficits, are likely to keep upward pressure on longer-term bond yields and mortgage rates.

What’s happening in today’s housing market? 

Affordability challenges have kept the housing market frozen for several years. Even as the lipsă de locuințe de lungă durată eases in several local markets and gives those buyers improved negotiating power, the rest remain locked out by steep home prices. The 2025 homebuying season is still on hold, said Kushi.  

În plus, cu riscurile de recesiune still on the horizon, people who are nervous about finances will be more reluctant to take on mortgage loan debt. Prospective buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop may soon have to adjust to the “higher for longer” rate environment. 

Deși forțele pieței sunt în afara controlului dumneavoastră, există modalități de a face cumpărarea unei case puțin mai accesibilă. Anul trecut, aproape jumătate dintre toți cumpărătorii de case au obținut o rată a dobânzii ipotecare sub 5%, potrivit Zillow.

Iată câteva strategii dovedite care pot te ajută să economisești până la 1,5% la rata dobânzii ipotecare. 

💰 Construiește-ți scorul de credit. Scorul dumneavoastră de credit va ajuta la determinarea dacă sunteți eligibil pentru o ipotecă și la ce rată a dobânzii. scor de credit de 740 sau mai mult vă va ajuta să vă calificați pentru o rată mai mică.

💰 Economisește pentru un avans mai mare. O mai mare acont vă permite să contractați o ipotecă mai mică și să obțineți o rată a dobânzii mai mică de la creditorul dumneavoastră. Dacă vă permiteți, un avans de cel puțin 20% va elimina și asigurarea ipotecară privată.

💰 Căutați credite ipotecare. Compararea ofertelor de credit de la mai mulți creditori ipotecari vă poate ajuta negociați o rată mai bunăExperții recomandă obținerea a cel puțin două sau trei estimări de împrumut de la creditori diferiți.

💰 Luați în considerare punctele ipotecare. Poți obține o rată ipotecară mai mică cumpărând puncte ipotecare, fiecare punct costând 1% din suma totală a creditului. Un punct ipotecar este egal cu o scădere de 0,25% a ratei dobânzii ipotecare.

Urmărește asta: 6 moduri de a reduce rata dobânzii la creditul ipotecar cu 1% sau mai mult

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